This is going to hurt just a little bit ...

From the September 16, 2009 edition of The Oklahoman

Well, we got some good news last week on the H1N1 front: It seems the new vaccine works much better than expected.

Instead of the anticipated two doses, it appears that a single dose will fully protect recipients against H1N1 influenza. That means we should have more than enough vaccine to protect the 160 million or so Americans who need it most.

Now the bad news: By the time large amounts of the vaccine are ready, it may be too late to help turn away the lion’s share of this season’s flu cases.

At this time of year, influenza levels are typically near zero. But Friday’s weekly report from the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention already rated flu activity as “widespread” (the highest of five levels) in 11 states, including Oklahoma.

Although unfortunate, this is hardly a surprise. In previous pandemics caused by new strains of flu virus, cases spiked early. And, indeed, of the flu cases we’re seeing now, more than 95 percent are H1N1.

Officials currently expect about 50 million doses of H1N1 vaccine to reach government warehouses by Oct. 15, with an additional 20 million doses ready each week thereafter.

As they become available, those lots will then ship to health centers, schools and other vaccination sites, where people will receive injections. Vaccine responses differ in individuals, but clinical trials indicate that most people will develop protection after eight to 10 days.

What this all means is that the later this flu peaks, the better shape we’re in. If it happens in late December – like the Hong Kong flu of 1968 – we could be in pretty good shape. But if we’re instead looking at late October, millions are likely to catch the virus before the vaccine becomes available.

Fortunately, most of the H1N1 cases we’ve seen to date have been mild, with symptoms similar to ordinary seasonal influenza.

Still, the current strain of H1N1 flu could mutate to a more dangerous form (and more cases of Tamiflu-resistant strains could emerge), so immunologists at the Oklahoma Medical Research Foundation and elsewhere are continuing to search for an antibody that neutralizes the virus. If they find one, it could play a big role in treating the people who are the sickest or who have trouble getting rid of the virus.

Meanwhile, all businesses need to develop flu plans to protect the health of their employees and ensure that critical functions can continue in the event of a pandemic.

Rest assured, we’ll get through this. Still, if you want to optimize your chances of getting through it flu-free, there are steps you can take to protect yourself.

Wash your hands frequently. Avoid contact with those who are sick whenever possible. And if you develop symptoms – especially a fever – see your health care provider.

Stephen Prescott is president of the Oklahoma Medical Research Foundation.  E-mail: OMRF-President@omrf.org

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